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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.