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The reprieve following the end of fighting in Gaza is substantial. Within Israeli borders, the freeing of captives held alive has sparked extensive joy. In Gaza and the West Bank, festivities are also underway as as many as 2,000 Palestinian prisoners start to be released – even as anguish remains due to uncertainty about which prisoners are returning and their destinations. Throughout Gaza's northern regions, civilians can now return to dig through rubble for the remains of an believed 10,000 missing people.

Truce Development Against Earlier Odds

As recently as three weeks ago, the likelihood of a ceasefire looked improbable. But it has come into force, and on Monday Donald Trump travelled from Jerusalem, where he was hailed in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he attended a high-level diplomatic gathering of over 20 world leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer. The peace initiative launched at that summit is set to advance at a conference in the UK. The US president, working alongside international partners, did make this deal take place – despite, not due to, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Palestinian Statehood Hopes Tempered by Previous Experiences

Expectations that the deal signifies the initial move toward Palestinian statehood are comprehensible – but, given historical precedent, somewhat optimistic. It lacks a transparent trajectory to independence for Palestinians and threatens splitting, for the foreseeable future, Gaza from the West Bank. Then there is the total ruin this war has caused. The lack of any timeline for Palestinian self-determination in Mr Trump’s plan gives the lie to self-aggrandizing mentions, in his Knesset speech, to the “epochal beginning” of a “era of prosperity”.

The US president could not resist dividing and making personal the deal in his speech.

In a time of ease – with the liberation of detainees, ceasefire and renewal of aid – he opted to reframe it as a lesson in ethics in which he solely reclaimed Israel’s honor after alleged treachery by former US presidents Obama and Biden. This even as the Biden administration twelve months prior having tried a comparable agreement: a truce connected with aid delivery and eventual diplomatic discussions.

Meaningful Agency Vital for Sustainable Agreement

A proposal that refuses one side substantive control cannot yield authentic resolution. The truce and relief shipments are to be embraced. But this is not yet political progress. Without processes securing Palestinian engagement and command over their own organizations, any deal endangers cementing oppression under the language of peace.

Relief Imperatives and Rebuilding Obstacles

Gaza’s people crucially depend on emergency support – and nutrition and medication must be the first priority. But restoration cannot wait. Amid 60 million tonnes of debris, Palestinians need support reconstructing residences, schools, healthcare facilities, religious buildings and other establishments destroyed by Israel’s military operation. For Gaza’s transitional administration to succeed, financial support must flow quickly and safety deficiencies be addressed.

Like a large portion of the president's resolution initiative, references to an international stabilisation force and a proposed “peace council” are alarmingly vague.

International Support and Prospective Outcomes

Substantial international support for the Palestinian leadership, allowing it to take over from Hamas, is probably the most encouraging possibility. The enormous suffering of the previous 24 months means the moral case for a resolution to the conflict is potentially more pressing than ever. But even as the halt in fighting, the homecoming of the captives and commitment by Hamas to “demilitarise” Gaza should be recognized as favorable developments, Mr Trump’s record gives little reason to trust he will fulfill – or deem himself compelled to try. Short-term relief should not be interpreted as that the prospect of a Palestinian state has been brought closer.